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Study From Leading Climate Scientist Says Climate Change Is Now Irreversible
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A new study by Susan Solomon, among the world's top climate scientists, says global warming is irreversible and turning off carbon dioxide emissions will not stop climate change, even 1,000 years after emissions stop. The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science on December 16, says the reason is greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide have been absorbed by the oceans over a long period of time and will start releasing heat and carbon dioxide again once emissions have stopped. Solomon is a scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The paper outlines these policy implications from the study's findings-- "It is sometimes imagined that slow processes such as climatechanges pose small risks, on the basis of the assumption that achoice can always be made to quickly reduce emissions andthereby reverse any harm within a few years or decades.
"We have shown that this assumption is incorrect for carbon dioxide emissions, because of the longevity of the atmospheric CO2 perturbation and ocean warming. Irreversible climate changes due to carbon dioxide emissions have already taken place, and future carbon dioxide emissions would imply further irreversible effects on the planet, with attendant long legacies for choices made by contemporary society.
"Discount rates used in some estimates of economic trade-offs assume that more efficient climate mitigation can occur in a future richer world, but neglect the irreversibility shown here. Similarly, understanding of irreversibilityr eveals limitations in trading of greenhouse gases on the basis of 100-year estimated climate changes (global warmingpotentials, GWPs), because this metric neglects carbon dioxide’sunique long-term effects.
"In this paper we have quantified how societal decisions regarding carbon dioxide concentrations that have already occurred or could occur in the coming century imply irreversible dangers relating to climate change for some illustrative populations and regions. These and other danger spose substantial challenges to humanity and nature, with amagnitude that is directly linked to the peak level of carbon dioxide reached."
Despite her findings, Soloman was quoted in an interview with NPR as saying,"I guess if it's irreversible, to me it seems all the more reason you might want to do something about it. Because committing to something that you can't back out of seems to me like a step that you'd want to take even more carefully than something you thought you could reverse." The entire Solomon article is available online. NewsClips:Climate Harm Called Irreversible Global Warming Is Irreversible, Study Says Editorial: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Related Stories-- |
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1/30/2009 |
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