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Lycoming College Poll Gauges Opinion On Marcellus Shale In Northcentral PA
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According to results of a Lycoming College poll released this week, public opinion is largely supportive of the development of Marcellus Shale in the region, but there is some concern about possible negative consequences.
Fifty percent of respondents indicated that the development of Marcellus Shale would be beneficial to their community, compared to 28 percent who felt its effects would be detrimental and 22 percent who did not have an opinion. In total, 79 percent of respondents indicated they followed news about Marcellus Shale somewhat or very closely.
“Marcellus has made big news in the region. We polled likely voters in the 10th congressional district, which largely overlaps with the Marcellus region in northeast Pennsylvania,” said Dr. Jonathan Williamson, chair of the Department of Political Science at Lycoming and director of the College’s Center for the Study of Community and the Economy. “Respondents were relatively knowledgeable about the issue and more supportive of the development of natural gas than not.”
Political science students, under the direction of Williamson, surveyed 370 likely voters from September 26-30 in the 10th congressional district, which extends from Williamsport in the west to sections of Lackawanna and Luzerne counties, excluding the cities of Scranton and Wilkes-Barre.
When offered a list of possible benefits that might result from the development of Marcellus Shale in the region, respondents were most optimistic about its potential for the creation of many new jobs for the region; in total 78 percent felt the creation of many new jobs was very likely or somewhat likely to occur.
Similarly, 71 percent felt that the natural gas industry would create needed economic development in the region. Sixty-one percent agreed that natural gas development would be very likely or somewhat likely to reduce our reliance on foreign sources of energy. Fewer respondents felt that natural gas development in our region would result in lower energy costs (47 percent) or lower taxes (33 percent).
“People are most optimistic about the possibilities that Marcellus brings to their local communities,” said Williamson, “but they are more cautious when asked about the broader reaching effects.”
When asked whether drilling should be limited or the growth of the industry should be encouraged, respondents were more divided.
Forty-six percent of respondents agreed with those who felt drilling should be limited because of threats to the environment, while 37 percent agreed with those who feel growth of the industry should be encouraged because the economic benefits outweigh the environmental risks. Seventeen percent of respondents remain undecided on the issue.
Among possible problems created by the growth of the natural gas industry, respondents expressed the most concern about threats to their water supply, with 57 percent indicating it was a major concern, and the damage to local roads caused by increased truck traffic, with 56 percent indicating that as a major concern.
Significant minorities also indicated health risks to those living near well sites (40 percent), risks to the health and beauty of forests (33 percent), jobs not going to local workers (30 percent), and increasing prices of housing and other necessities (30 percent), as major concerns.
“Even though respondents are hopeful about the potential benefits of natural gas development,” said Williamson, “they expressed healthy reservations about the potential negative consequences as well.”
Respondents were also asked their opinion regarding legislation related to the natural gas industry currently under consideration in Harrisburg. A plurality (45 percent) supported levying a severance tax on natural gas, although 37 percent were undecided on the issue and 18 percent were opposed.
A vast majority (70 percent) of respondents indicated that if a severance tax were levied most of the money should go to local governments to pay for costs like road maintenance or public safety that are attributable to the natural gas industry, as opposed using the funds to balance the state budget deficit, an option supported by only 10 percent of respondents.
The remaining respondents either did not have an opinion on the issue, felt the money should be divided between the two options, or preferred the revenue to be used in another way.
Respondents were also asked whether they favored proposed legislation that would require land owners to sign gas leases if the majority of their neighbors had done so. Only 11 percent of respondents favored such pooling legislation, while 56 percent opposed it. One third of respondents didn’t know enough about the issue to express an opinion.
“The severance tax and pooling legislation has been in the news a lot in recent weeks,” said Williamson, “but a sizable share of the public still haven’t learned enough about the issues to take a position. Among those that have, it is notable that most are comfortable with the idea of a severance tax, but don’t want it to be absorbed into the state’s general fund. The pooling legislation is unpopular likely because respondents see it as violating their rights to control their property.”
In sum, 54 percent of respondents had signed a natural gas lease or had someone in their family or someone else they knew who had done so.
A copy of the poll results is available online.
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10/11/2010 |
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